ONE EAST - TWO BEASTS! IT ALL COMES DOWN TO THIS!

Posted by bigD | May 19, 2008 .

With the terrible Tigers playing just that – ABSOLUTELY TERRIBLE it’s nice to know the other sports teams in Detroit are more then successful as both the Red Wings and Pistons are now in the final four of their respective sports. As we all know the Wings are going to try yet again tonight (Monday) to take down the Stars (and let’s hope they do) but what about those Detroit Pistons? They’ve earned yet another berth in the Eastern Conference Finals! WOW! HOW SWEET IT IS! Like previous seasons though, it’s going to be extremely difficult for Detroit to take the next step and advance to the NBA Finals as standing in their way are the always tough, star studded and battle tested Boston Celtics. Here’s my take on what might very well be the best series of the playoffs yet (and that’s saying something considering the series Boston just came out of)…

MY TAKE ON THE MATCHUPS

KEVIN GARNETT vs. RASHEED WALLACE – Overall, this could be the most important match-up of the entire series simply because of everything these two big men can do. They can both shoot from the outside and basically their game is all over the court at times but for big men they also defend very well…particularly Rasheed who may be the best defensive big man in basketball. This is by far the biggest test for Wallace yet though. The key to these two will be the outside shooting and how effectively one can move the other out from under the basket taking them out of the rebounding scheme on either end of the court. Rasheed won’t shut down Kevin Garnett because let’s face it, no one can. Wallace’s goal is to contain KG but even that is easier said then done.

EDGE – KEVIN GARNETT – He’s a much more consistent scorer then SHEED and that might say a lot in a series that should be dominated more so by team defense then anything else. That being said, Wallace is tough and should make Garnett earn everything so I give the edge to KG but BARELY.

PAUL PIERCE vs. TAYSHAUN PRINCE – My first thought is that this match-up will assure no more 40 point evenings for Pierce. Prince’s long arms create huge shooting problems for perimeter players but the fact that Prince doesn’t shy away from physical play either makes him a tremendous all around defender. You never have an easy lay-up as long as Prince’s ET-like arms are in your vicinity. Prince was fabulous defending against the Orlando Magic but the Magic are hardly the Celtics. Prince certainly has to be at his best defensively here but if he disrupts Pierce at all he’s done his job. Prince can be tough to defend when he posts up or shoots from the outside but he is another Piston who is extremely inconsistent in putting the ball in the hoop and Pierce certainly isn’t. I think it will be tougher for Pierce in this round then last despite the presence of LeBron James in the last series but I am still not sold on Prince stopping him all series long.

EDGE – PAUL PIERCE – Since Prince is such an excellent defender in the lane this match-up will be determined by the outside shooting of Pierce and how well Prince can keep a hand in his face whenever Pierce pulls up from the perimeter. Again, since Pierce is a more consistent scorer then Prince you have to give him the edge but because of the way Prince has been defending in these playoffs already, it’s a close match-up.

RAY ALLEN vs. RIP HAMILTON – The biggest question here is…Can Ray Allen (Jesus Shuttlesworth) run with RIP for an entire series?? Can anyone? RIP will do everything to tire out the Celtics and why wouldn’t he? He’s faster off screens then anyone in the NBA. This is going to be tough on Allen and may just wear him down. Allen is a tremendous outside shooter and is dangerous from anywhere but this is CLEARLY not the superstar RAY ALLEN. For some reason Allen is out of it right now and if Hamilton tires him out it might REALLY show late in the series since the Celtics have got to be tired coming in while Hamilton and the Pistons are more then rested up. Eddie House could steal more minutes from Allen again. Due to the fact that most players on the court are going to have tight match-ups, both teams are going to look to these 2 shooting guards to put points on the board. If Allen does it, even more will be put on Garnett to lead Boston since Pierce will be toughly defended vs. Prince. If RIP has the series he is capable of having it could very well be R.I.P. Celtics.

EDGE – RIP HAMILTON – This is another close match-up but I truly do believe Hamilton will eventually get the best of Allen even if Allen comes out hot to begin the series (unlikely since he’s been anything but hot lately). I think this match-up is almost completely based on energy. Neither of these 2 defend as well as others on their teams but Hamilton is a tall guard, he’s quick and he should be able to give Allen headaches. The key is Hamilton’s defense on Allen from behind the arc. I give the edge to Hamilton, especially in the later games.

RAJON RONDO vs. CHAUNCEY BILLUPS – It all depends on the health of Billups as he was hurt for much of the Orlando series. The Pistons say he’s 100% and ready to go but he still might be rusty. The Celtics better hope he is since on paper this is clearly a mismatch. It’s not that Rondo is a bad player. He just lacks in the experience department where Billups should use his knowledge to his advantage over a still learning Rondo. Rajon has had on the job training all season long for Boston and I must say he has improved rather quickly but going up against Chauncey in this type of atmosphere is not going to be easy at all. This match-up will depend on what either team really wants to do. If Billups dominates Rondo to no end the Celtics might turn to veteran guard – Sam Cassell but either player should make Billups like his lips with anticipation. This area is without a doubt the biggest concern for the Celtics. Don’t overlook Billups’ back-up, Rodney Stuckey here either. His playing time in the Magic series was an excellent learning curve for him and he certainly is no slouch off the bench for Detroit, along with Lindsey Hunter. Billups will try and use a variety of offensive moves to throw off Rondo including posting him up. Experience is too big a factor here.

EDGE – CHAUNCEY BILLUPS WITHOUT A DOUBT – I’d have to be on crack to say Rondo since Billups is a much better player at this stage with obviously more playoff experience and Boston will try to do everything defensively to make sure Billups doesn’t get hot. The biggest key could be not how Rondo plays vs. Chauncey but how well Cassell plays him. We’ll see.

KENDRICK PERKINS vs. ANTONIO McDYESS (JASON MAXIELL) – Detroit can do more with McDyess and Co. then Boston can do with Perkins but depending on the personnel and who defends Garnett, this might be a height mismatch for Perkins against the smaller McDyess should Detroit choose to go that way. It’s the most logical choice since McDyess can put the most points on the board regardless.

EDGE – ANTONIO McDYESS – Detroit can rotate him and MAD MAX in and out if they need to but it’s all about what McDyess we see. When he’s hot he can fill it from anywhere and he’s a mid-range jump shooter which makes him even more valuable as a big man and difficult for Boston to defend.

BENCHES

Detroit has some good young talent off the bench in Stuckey, Afflalo and Maxiell, particularly MAD MAX who brings power and physical play into the game. Ratliff and Hunter can also supply strong defense with Hunter having the ability to hit clutch shots. The most notable name off the Celtic bench is Cassell who has championship experience but is certainly aging. PJ Brown hit some big shots for the Celtics in the final game vs. Cleveland but it’s unlikely he’ll do it again. Again, House might get some of Allen’s minutes the way he’s playing and that wouldn’t shock me again vs. a tough Piston D. In short, the Boston bench isn’t as deep as the Pistons bench but they might not have to be. EDGE - DETROIT.

COACHING

Doc Rivers coached his Celtics to the best record and the home advantage throughout the playoffs. It could be argued that with Garnett, Allen and Pierce in the same starting 5, GUMBY could coach this team and be successful with it and what a shock…HE DOES! I have never personally liked Flip Saunders as a head coach because I still don’t think he gets the most out of his players and I highly doubt that they respond to him when they should the most. This Pistons team is too unpredictable and although Saunders shouldn’t be blamed for the Pistons and their unpredictable ways, someone has to take the blame on it and I just don’t think they always respond to Flip the way they should. That being said, they’ve gotten to the Eastern Conference Finals YET AGAIN and still do look pretty strong defensively.

EDGE – EVEN.

FINAL PREDICTION

There are 3 big keys to this series – 1. Who will play the best defense? These were 2 of the top 5 best defensive teams in the NBA this season and Boston was the #1 overall D … 2. How tired is Boston and can they go another 7 game series vs. a tougher, more physical and more talented overall (then who they’ve already played) Detroit team? Detroit is a well rested squad who will take Boston to the absolute limit but Boston can put up a lot of points so the onus will clearly be on the Celtics and their energy level … 3. How well can Detroit’s D defend the trio of Pierce, Allen and Garnett? They certainly have the personnel to match-up well with them and defend them well but saying it and actually doing it are 2 different things.

Until Detroit proves that they can play consistently all of the time and not just some of the time I have to take the easy pick here and say Boston will beat them. The Celtics haven’t lost a single game at home in these playoffs and they always seem to find a way as long as it’s in the Garden. In order for Detroit to win, they have to hold at home and steal one in Boston. I am not even completely sold on the fact that Detroit can hold at home against a team that is so hard to defend against. Detroit matches up against Boston probably better then anyone else in the East (maybe in all of basketball) but we don’t even know yet what Pistons team will show up in the first place and that’s never a good sign at this stage.

One other thing to note is that in past years Detroit has been accused of just plain running out of gas because they were overplayed in the regular season. They can’t use that excuse any longer since Flip played a lot of his bench this season and also a lot of his young talent to rest his superstars like Hamilton and Billups. Can Boston say the same? The minutes the big 3 logged this season says it all. How much gas will the Celtics have left for Detroit? Only time will tell but I’ll take Boston in 7 here. Until someone proves they can beat the Celtics in Beantown it’s the safest pick.

Can the Pistons do it? Yes. Do they have the personnel to do it? YES. Will they do it? With this Piston team, I just don’t know. Nothing is ever for sure with them. For that reason there is some doubt here and you can’t have that kind of doubt this far into the playoffs. Boston took 2 of 3 from Detroit in the regular season. Unless Detroit finds the consistency that has escaped them and the ability to hold at home and win a game in Boston, I’ll take the Boston Celtics in 7 games provided they don’t run out of energy. This truly has potential to be the best series of the playoffs.

BIG D’S FINAL PREDICTION – BOSTON OVER DETROIT IN 7.

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ONE EAST - TWO BEASTS! IT ALL COMES DOWN TO THIS!

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