NFL PLAYOFFS - CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS

 

New England Patriots (14-4) at Indianapolis Colts (14-4)
The ESPN hit show – “Around the Horn” had a question in its “Showdown” portion of the show last week which stated… “Good for Tom Brady or GREAT for Tom Brady?” Indeed, that’s what the ex-Michigan QB’s life has come down to. Can he honestly do anything wrong? Can the Patriots? It’s amazing to me how one team can get all the breaks, all the bounces and all the luck on their side but they say the good teams are also the lucky teams. The Pats are no exception. That being said, they have the most unselfish players, the best coaching and a patient, difficult to rattle, QB in Brady that most teams can’t contend with. We’ll see if the Colts can but beating Patriot coach – Bill Belichick can at times be as complicated as figuring out QB rating with nothing in front of you. No doubt about it…Colts QB – Peyton Manning is in for the most difficult defensive scheme that he’ll see and obviously, this isn’t the first time he’s faced the Pats (and it probably won’t be the last). Getting back to luck, when you rush for 60 yards, have 3 passes picked off and still win a playoff game it really speaks wonders for how your team can overcome any adversity. It’s not just one playoff game though…it’s 12 of 13. That’s right, the NFL’s golden boy, Tom Brady is 12-1 in the postseason for his career. Simply put, that’s not of this Earth. Sometimes that’s exactly what the Patriots as a team make you believe. That being said, the way the Colts defense has been playing, having no running game against them probably won’t lead to a Patriot victory this time around so it’s crucial that Corey Dillon, Lawrence Maroney and even Kevin Faulk gain some decent yardage to take much of the pressure off Tom Brady and the Pats short passing game. Word is, Belichick and Brady had a closed door, private meeting this week on game strategies so you can bet the Pats will be more then prepared to combat the surprising Colt defense. That being said, will WR’s – Reche Caldwell, Jabar Gaffney and Troy Brown be enough to beat the hungry Colts? On defense, it’s up to zone mastermind, Belichick to give Manning headaches with players such as CB - Asante Samuel, LB – Teddy Bruschi and DE – Richard Seymour. It’s been done so often before but can it be done yet again or will Manning combat the team he hasn’t been able to beat when it matters the most?  

Let’s let bygones be bygones. Peyton Manning has not been Peyton Manning in these playoffs. He threw for only 161 yards and had 2 interceptions vs. Baltimore last week. That being said, the Colt D stepped up to break the Ravens hearts in a big way, just as they did to the Chiefs. Nonetheless, some people are still wondering if it was the Colts strong defensive play or just the fact that they’ve beaten terrible offenses with even worse game plans. I think it’s a combination of both but the Colt D will certainly meet their match vs. the Pats. DE’s – Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney certainly have their work cut out for them to not only attempt to stop the Pats rushing attack, but to get to Brady (sometimes tough to do when the short pass game is working). Supreme Safety – Bob Sanders has been playing tremendous, aggressive football these last few weeks and he’ll need to yet again. Offensively, everyone knows the Colts and their talent that goes with it. Names like Harrison, Wayne and Clark almost go hand in hand with Manning. If Colt RB - Joseph Addai runs well, Manning could have a strong day so it’s very important for the Pats to not just attempt to rattle Manning, but to take down the Colts…PERIOD.

 

What It All Comes Down To
I know this sounds cliché, but the key is the turnover battle here. If Manning has the same old trouble that he’s always had against the same old Patriots, he’ll probably lose so it’s mandatory that he doesn’t throw any interceptions. Regardless, the Colts can’t afford to turn the ball over to the Pats so that could be the most important stat of all. If Indy’s D plays like it has been doing, they could definitely beat New England because, as mentioned, they’ve been dominating. If the Pats keep the game close, they have a much better chance to win because they don’t have the offense to come back when trailing by a big margin. The Colts should come out trying to fire on all cylinders and it will certainly be interesting to see if they successfully do it. One thing will truly determine this game though. The ability of both Brady and Belichick to pinpoint a team’s weakness and exploit it is the key. If they can’t find a way to beat the Colts then who can? With the game being at home for the Colts, they certainly have the advantage but when you play the Patriots you better come with not only a perfect game plan but you also must play with perfect execution. Manning has not yet done so in these playoffs. The Pats upset the mighty Chargers and if they can do that, with all the Patriot history running wild, you simply can’t predict against them unless it’s proven wrong. I’d like to see Manning move on for the first time but you simply can’t say that’s going to happen. Predicting against the Patriots is simply a wrong move at this point. It’s not that I think them winning here is set in stone. I just won’t predict against this mastermind team with all the luck and success in the world. Simply put, you can’t phase the Patriots, but as proven in the past, you can phase Peyton Manning.

PREDICTION – New England – 24 / Indy - 21