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MLB PREVIEW - NL EAST

Posted by bigD | April 13, 2007 .

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MLB PREVIEW – NL EAST

To me, the Mets are primed to take it to the next level this season and should have some nice battles with the Phillies for the division title. That being said, don’t count out the Atlanta Braves and their overall abilities from both their star hitters and pitchers. Florida and Washington are basically minor league teams that really don’t belong other then to build up for the future. This division has the potential to show us some interesting battles this season with players like Beltran, Delgado, Glavine, Smoltz, Hudson, Chipper and Andruw Jones, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. The best overall pitching should win the division. The Mets have the best all around team but will their pitching hold up? That’s what should decide everything.

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1. NEW YORK METS
This is the best overall team in the NL East and one of the few very talented ball clubs in a very weak National League overall. The addition of ageless veteran – LF - Moises Alou could just be the difference to this team taking the next step but there was no upgrade on starting pitching and that could come back to haunt the Mets later on down the line.

#1 PLAYER TO WATCH: SS – Jose Reyes. Why do I take him here over Beltran or Delgado? He’s just plain magical, is improving all the time and has the ability to be the next dominant force at SS for a long time in the National League. He has absolutely outstanding speed and is a great gap hitter but because you fear the bunt you play in on him at times and he can kill you if you do. He’s a good lift hitter but has surprising pop in his bat for the way he’s built. He has great range at SS with a good arm, quick release and he’s got a lot of flashy play in him. He has game changing talent and is strong defensively. He has the ability to absolutely be one of the best players in this game today. A 5 tool SS in the major leagues…what a refreshing concept!

X-FACTOR: 1B – Carlos Delgado. He just plain rakes the ball out of the ballpark with a lift swing much like Reyes except with a lot more power. He’s easily one of the game’s best power hitters with power to all fields and really strong hands because his swing uses a lot of wrist power in it. He seems to have problem with the odd left handed junk thrower but usually turns on gas or hanging breaking stuff. His overall range at 1B isn’t the greatest defensively and he also seems to have problems fielding balls off his backhand but you love him because of what he does up to bat.

THEY WILL HAVE A GOOD YEAR IF: The team plays to its potential which doesn’t always seem to be the case in New York. This strong supporting cast of Lo Duca, Beltran (5 tool player who has proven more results with more talent around him), Wright (a tremendously productive hitter who is on the rise as one of the absolute best 3B in the game), Alou, Green, Valentin and the aforementioned Reyes and Delgado is as talented a National League offense as you’ll find but often times the Mets have a habit of not getting everything out of all of their talent all the time so we’ll see.

OUTLOOK: The loss of pitcher – Pedro Martinez to injury until August might end up biting this team in the ass but Tom Glavine, Orlando Hernandez, Maine, Pelfry and Perez should be enough to keep the Mets in the hunt with the Phillies for the division title. As long as Billy Wagner (when he doesn’t get burned because of slider overuse) is in the back part of the bullpen, this staff should be fine with the decent run production the offense should put up. They should win their division and the National League if all goes well. Anything less would be a disappointment.

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2. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Philly is led by last season’s NL MVP and one of baseball’s best power hitters – Ryan Howard (60 HR’s and 150 RBI’s aren’t impossible for him when he plays in hitter friendly Citizens Bank Park). They also have a decent starting rotation top to bottom. These are the 2 biggest indications that this Phillies team could be destined to take the next step. They picked up ex-White Sox pitcher – Freddy Garcia (logs lots of innings with many pitches but keeps losing velocity on his fastball). This move should prove beneficial if he keeps the ball down in this small ballpark.

#1 PLAYER TO WATCH: Since I’ve already mentioned Ryan Howard who is as dangerous a big man as you can get, I’ll go with 2B – Chase Utley. Simply put, he’s the best hitting 2B in either league. He’s got great bat speed and control. He uses the whole field and he’ll make adjustments if you fool him once. He is good in pressure situations and responds to hitting with runners in scoring position well. On top of that, he runs well too. Defensively he’s always improving. If you’re fussy, you can find the odd weakness in his defensive play in that he’s not always smooth like other middle infielders. He compensates for his faults because he’s very aggressive, wants to win and plays hard. If he keeps going at the pace he’s going at he’ll be right up there as one of the very best all around players in baseball very soon. That’s scary for the opposition considering he hits next to Howard in their batting order.

X-FACTOR: The starting pitching. I already mentioned Garcia as their ace and he’s a real wildcard because many feel his ability is going down. That being said, Philly is very high on youngster – Cole Hamels (in all likelihood, he’s the next Barry Zito due to similar styles and how he’s progressed). Brett Myers, Adam Eaton and Jamie Moyer round out the starting staff which is a good one as far as the National League goes.

THEY WILL BE SUCCESSFUL IF: The bullpen comes through for them but even that’s a BIG IF. The closer is Tom Gordon. He’s been around since FOREVER. He’s still a decent closer with a couple of variations on his fastball, a curveball and a slider but he’s getting to an age where he can’t pitch for too many days in a row so he’ll need some help. That help will come from setup man – Ryan Madson who they say is losing his stuff at this stage. A bullpen with question marks doesn’t spell much success so this is definitely the key to maybe the entire season for Philadelphia.

OUTLOOK: As an all around team, the Mets are stronger due to some pitching question marks by Philly. Even if the Mets do take this division though, I still think the Phillies are good enough to win the Wild Card if they can hold off the Braves. That might be the most intriguing match-up of the National League this season.

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3. ATLANTA BRAVES
If Mike Hampton (didn’t pitch at all in 2006), Tim Hudson (heavy sinker, curve, slider, change and splitter) and John Smoltz (hard thrower with a cutter, curve, slider and splitter) can stay healthy and pitch the way they can despite age and injury both being a factor, Atlanta should compete for this division for half of the season, then if all goes well, they’ll be competing for the wild card at the end of it.

#1 PLAYER TO WATCH: CF – Andruw Jones. Like Chipper Jones, he has some injury problems that continue to affect him but when healthy and on his game, Andruw has the ability to take over a game on both sides of the ball. He has a long stroke but great bat speed. He likes the high heater a lot but seems to hit better when he shortens his swing with runners in scoring position. He’s at his best when he uses the whole field. He is a very streaky hitter but you sure love him when he’s hot. Defensively he’s one of the best pure CF’s in baseball. He’s smooth and has exceptional range everywhere. He lives on his instincts like a good CF would and he’s outstanding out there. Again, injuries continue to plague him so it might be only a matter of time before his play starts to go downhill. When healthy he is a very lethal force and one of the best players out there.

X-FACTOR: The young supporting cast. Sure, we know about the Chipper (outstanding switch hitting ability to all fields but like Andruw, he’s bothered by injuries) and Andruw Jones. Believe it or not, the Braves have talent elsewhere and much of it is young. Their RF – Jeff Francoeur (5-tool talent with MVP potential) and 1B - Adam LaRoche (.285/32/90) are 2 of the very best young players in baseball. The Braves just seem to keep producing great young talent and these 2 are no exception to that. On top of that, young C – Brian McCann (.333/24/93) is already being called one of the game’s best catchers by some and he’s relatively an unknown around baseball. Add it all up and this team has the potential to be scary on some nights. But will it happen all the time?

THEY WILL BE SUCCESSFUL IF: They stay healthy. As mentioned earlier, Hampton missed all of last season, Smoltz has had injury problems in the past and the Jones’ are absolutely plagued with them off and on. If the Braves stay injury free and get the most out of their young talents…LOOK OUT!

OUTLOOK: They’ve got the kind of hitting and frontline pitching to look like world beaters in some games, but will they get that kind of consistency all season long? I think the best they can hope for is to compete for the wild card against Philadelphia but that being said, this is one team you don’t want to play and never count out the Braves despite their division winning streak coming to an end last season.

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4. FLORIDA MARLINS
What difference does success make? Owner, Wayne Heizenga will just have a fire sale for the millionth time if they get good again anyway. Not to worry about another big sale though Florida fans. It will be awhile before this team can even think about returning to that kind of fame. This Marlin team is predominantly a young one, led by one solid superstar pitcher in Dontrelle Willis and one 5 tool talent in Miguel Cabrera. This team spends no money so the big concern going into this season is in the one area where they needed to spend the most but didn’t – IN THE BULLPEN.

#1 PLAYER TO WATCH: 3B – Miguel Cabrera. He has 40 HR and 100 RBI production in him with exceptional bat speed and power to boot. He isn’t afraid of getting jammed either and he will pull that pitch. He also hits the breaking ball well. He has good speed but isn’t great at base-running. Defensively he’s basically known for his arm and he definitely has a cannon. He has good footwork and good hands. They say he’ll eventually become a 1B. The most amazing thing about him is that…every single year this guy plays you look at him and think he’s ahead of his time. In many ways, he is.

X-FACTOR: P – Dontrelle Willis. He’s the only real strong starting pitcher they have, although there are some rising youngsters. Willis is very charismatic but is one hell of an athlete. He has a very animated delivery, has good command and is very deceptive because he’s so herky jerky. He has a low velocity fastball but has a nice slider and change of pace to compliment it. The fact that he’s so odd makes him so good and he should be one of the best in baseball for years to come.

THEY WILL BE SUCCESSFUL IF: When the rest of your starting pitching includes names like Josh Johnson, Scott Olsen , Ricky Nolasco (they say all 3 are on the heavy rise) and Anibal Sanchez, you’re not going to win that much. That plus the loss of Wes Helms in the bullpen and you get the picture.

OUTLOOK: They just don’t have the names or the talent to be any higher then a 4th place finish in a much improved AL East.

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WASHINGTON NATIONALS
New manager – Manny Acta certainly has his hands full with this team. Experts predict that this Nationals team might just be so bad that they might even set the all time record for futility. We all know how that feels, right Tiger fans? With the loss of Soriano to free agency, they will have lost key hitting (still have Austin Kearns, Nick Johnson and Brian Schneider) but they have a terrible lack of overall pitching (led by John Patterson) and that won’t even spell 70 wins.

#1 PLAYER TO WATCH: 1B – Nick Johnson, if for no other reason, he’s their best (and one of their only run producers. One other mention needs to go to closer – Chad Cordero (he has the “here it is, hit it” mentality) who actually has decent talent. The trouble is, they will seldom be in a position to get to him with a lead. I expect him to be traded before the season is over.

X-FACTOR: 3B – Ryan Zimmerman. He is a real rising star and has the potential to be a dynamite 3B. Simply put, he’s one of the best young position players to hit the big leagues in awhile. Washington needs to focus on getting some threats around him so that he can benefit from it.

THEY WILL BE SUCCESFUL IF: There is no chance of this happening and I am being realistic.

OUTLOOK: This is the worst team going…not just in the NL East…IN ALL OF BASEBALL.

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