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MLB PREVIEW - NL CENTRAL

Posted by bigD | April 6, 2007 .

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Unlike the AL Central, this isn’t the greatest division in the world because of the weak teams at the bottom of it that even the Royals would challenge in the AL. St. Louis is still the class of the division and should win it again despite the fact that the Cubs will come at them with a ton of offense but also a ton of injuries. The Astros will be the Astros and should contend for much of the year but they’ve lost too many arms. From there, Cincy, Milwaukee and Pittsburgh aren’t threats to contend at all. Don’t be fooled if one of these teams goes on a mini roll at the beginning of the season. The 162 game schedule is an indication that it won’t last. Instead, the Cards will win this division yet again and go on to the playoffs. They won’t be as dominant as last year but they won’t need to be.

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1. ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

Any team with the single best offensive force/player in the MLB will always be a threat but there are definite setbacks in the pitching staff. The front of the staff is led by one of the most dominating arms in the game in Chris Carpenter (commands both sides of the plate well, goes deep into games and is a proven performer in big moments) but after that there are question marks. Kip Wells is underachieving, Anthony Reyes and Adam Wainright are both on the rise but Braden Looper isn’t and is still recovering from 2005 surgery. Closer, Jason Isringhausen can be effective but he’s coming off hip surgery and his fastball is losing velocity as I speak.

#1 PLAYER TO WATCH: Who else? 1B – Albert Pujols. Sure, it’s an obvious choice but more so because you never know what kind of sick numbers this man is capable of putting up in a single season if he stays completely healthy. He has a great swing, the ability to make adjustments and he’s hardly ever fooled. He’s also a great hitter under pressure and can’t be rattled. Defensively, he won a gold glove last season so that basically says all I need to say. The best all around player in baseball is Pujols…BAR NONE! The amazing part about this man is that, as dominant as he has become, they say he’s still improving. HOW? In all honesty, before he’s done he has a chance to be called the best baseball player who ever lived. Case closed.

X-FACTOR: For the most part, you have a team going downhill after winning the World Series. They say SS – David Eckstein is due for a big drop off but when? Adam Kennedy, Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds are on the downside of their careers. That being said, any team with Pujols hitting in the 3 spot can better all hitters in the lineup.

THEY WILL HAVE A GREAT YEAR IF: The pitching holds up. It has the ability to do so but it’s not likely that they will stay consistent throughout which will mean it’s up to Pujols and the offense to win their share of games.

OUTLOOK: They’re still one of (if not) the best team/s in the NL Central. On the days they pitch well, they’ll probably win because of a more then capable offense. This team has big time talent but we’ll see what kind of toll winning a championship has taken on them. Manager, Tony LaRussa won’t let them get down for long but again, when you possess perhaps the best pitcher in the game and without question the best overall player, success will follow you.

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2. CHICAGO CUBS

The Cubs spent a lot of money in the offseason which will lead to a lot of offense but it won’t necessarily lead to many more victories because they still lack pitching. The front of their rotation is injured as always. Mark Prior and Kerry Wood had such tremendous promise at one time that people were saying the Cubs were the team of the future. Now it’s all hitting for the Cubs who, like many teams, lack in the most important area of all – STARTING PITCHING. That being said, Lou Piniella was brought in to try and sort out this underachieving mess. If he can’t make winners out of the Cubbies…who can?

#1 PLAYER TO WATCH: OF – Alfonso Soriano. He was their big free agent pick up and what a great one it was. This guy is one of the most dangerous hitters in the game bar none. Although he lacks some patience, he’ll hit bad pitches out of the park with power to all fields and a good live swing. He has a great stroke for that ballpark and he’s got good speed on the bases. His attitude is terrible at times and it especially was when the Washington Nationals moved him from 2B to LF last season but he ended up adjusting to the position very well and it amazed some people how well he improved once he accepted his role as an outfielder. He has a strong arm because he has infielder-like release and throwing action and he’s also very quick out there. The bottom line is that he’s probably the closest thing to a true blue 5-tool athlete in the majors. He joined the 40-40 club last season and I wouldn’t put it past him to get 50-50 this time around. I kid you not. He is THAT GOOD. Playing in Wrigley will only help him. The only problem with this kid is the Cubs may not know where to hit him. Word is they are leaning towards leading him off. His HR production could slip if this happens but word is he’s more comfortable there then putting him in pressure situations like a 3rd or 4th hitter but he’s one of these guys that can basically hit anywhere, play any outfield position and he’ll always hit the ball and put up tremendous numbers. As mentioned, he isn’t the best outfielder but he’s made such an improvement that he’s above average now. As an all around talent though, few in the MLB exceed this man.

X-FACTOR: A healthy Derek Lee = A healthy Chicago Cubs. Like Soriano, he’s just plain dominant when healthy but he sat out most of last season with a wrist injury. He’s another hitter that will spray the ball to all fields and he extends his arms well up to bat from what I’ve seen. He’s a good breaking ball hitter and he also runs the bases well for a big guy. He’s got a great mix of both average and power but he’s also a great defensive first baseman and isn’t afraid to dig balls out of the dirt. Pencil him in as the 3rd hitter on the Cubs and he’ll have another great season if he just stays healthy. Injuries always seem to be the Achilles Heel of the Cubs.

THEY WILL HAVE A GREAT YEAR IF: Pitching keeps them in games. If both Prior and Wood actually do ever see the dam field again and get to a level of 75% of what they did in the past, this team will have a chance to be right in the thick of things come September. That’s an awfully tall order because the Cubs just can’t stay healthy. Carlos Zambrano (has a nasty slider, splitter and curveball) is as good as anybody when he’s on his game. He leads this rotation with a hard nosed, junkyard dog type of attitude and he definitely wants to win. He can get too emotional at times but he tries really hard. Ted Lilly came over from Toronto and Jason Marquis from St. Louis. Both will help out a great deal if Prior and Wood don’t see the field. With just Ryan Dempster closing out games and Bob Howry setting him up, there really is nothing tremendous about this pitching staff at this point and if they’re going to win games, starting pitching must keep runs down. If not, the Cubs will have to out-hit teams.

OUTLOOK: Really, it’s about how well they pitch because they’ll hit the ball. An interesting player to watch is Jacque Jones who they’ll move to CF. Although his skills are going down with age, he can still get the job done. Don’t forget about cleanup hitter, 3B - Aramis Ramirez either. He is more then capable of 40 HR’s and 130 RBI’s hitting behind both Soriano and Lee. Ramirez is a legit all-star and is a definite sleeper to have an absolute monster season hitting behind Lee as long as the Cubs stay healthy. Their pitching certainly can’t and that has been the reason for their underachieving ways in the past. I definitely look for them to be in the hunt if the pitching holds out but at this point there are too many what ifs for them to compete with the Cardinals. That’s not to say they can’t though. Time will tell.

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3. HOUSTON ASTROS

One of the biggest free agent pickups – Carlos Lee will improve an offense that really needs it. They also went out and got starter, Woody Williams. Combine those 2 pickups with the dominant Roy Oswalt (mid 90’s fastball, a straight change and a big curveball that he can throw anywhere from 60-77 mph), Lance Berkman and Morgan Ensberg and this team will be a little more exciting to watch this season, if for no other reason, they’ll score more runs with Lee’s bat in the lineup.

#1 PLAYER TO WATCH: 1B - Lance Berkman. He’s got good bat speed from both sides but seems to have more power from the left side. The fact that he goes deep into counts certainly makes him a quality power hitter and he’s more then improved defensively. His glove work has gotten considerably better.

X-FACTOR: How well Berkman hits now that LF – Carlos Lee is in the mix. It’s no big secret. Berkman has been pitched around for years. Why let him beat you when you know that for the most part, others can’t? Not so fast. Enter Carlos. Lee uses the whole field well and has a long swing. He has quick hands, bat speed and good power everywhere. On top of that he’ll be playing in a hitter friendly park but the Astros have automatically improved offensively with this pickup because it will solidify Berkman hitting 3rd. Face it, you don’t want to pitch around Berkman to get to Lee do you?

THEY WILL HAVE A GREAT YEAR IF: They hit the ball, but also if they can adequately replace last season’s losses with strong acquisitions this time around. Starter, Jason Jennings certainly won’t replace Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens. Brad Lidge (high 90’s fastball with a high 80’s slider) is a dominant closer in the pen and Dan Wheeler (can pitch long relief or even close if needed) is improving as a setup man but they lost a lot of pitching depth so hitting the ball is crucial.

OUTLOOK: They are a lot like the Cardinals in that, if they hit the ball, they’ll win, but this pitching staff doesn’t have the talent of previous seasons. Either do the Astros.

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4. MILWAUKEE BREWERS

I don’t want to sound like a broken record here but the facts are clear. Very little starting pitching equals very little playoff chances. Although the Brewers did go out and get starter, Jeff Suppan from St. Louis, he has to be the savior for them and he certainly is not made that way. Suppan is very dependable and will log a lot of innings because his stuff isn’t overpowering but he has excellent command and will be a decent 1-2 punch with Ben Sheets (high 90’s fastball and slow curve). Chris Capuano, Dave Bush and Claudio Vargas round out the starting 5. They clearly aren’t household names but that’s exactly how this team has been for years. It is possible this could be the year that the Brewers take the next step but again, it’s doubtful that they will contend with the Cards.

#1 PLAYER TO WATCH: 1B – Prince Fielder. He is a carbon copy of his father in the good old days when Cecil played for Detroit. He’s an all or nothing big man but he doesn’t have the brutal hitting mechanics that his father had. Instead, he adjusts nicely with good bat speed, short arms and quick hands to get to balls inside which he can just plain drive. He is still young but he hits like someone much older despite the fact that he will chase high fastballs. He is just so big, he is more of a defensive liability then an asset. If he doesn’t keep his weight down, he might end up playing himself right out of baseball like his father, which is a shame because his hitting ability truly is scary. Another thing about his huge weight is that, if he keeps it up he will turn into mostly a DH and that will eventually lead him into the American League.

X-FACTOR: Running down the starting lineup, you’ll see many talented players but very little superstar talents which makes you question them taking the next step. That being said they also play in a weak division so if these guys hit you just never know. In 2B – Rickie Weeks, SS – JJ Hardy, CF – Bill Hall, C – Johnny Estrada, LF – Geoff Jenkins (struggles terribly against lefties) and RF – Corey Hart they round out a team that still needs to improve a great deal in my opinion before they take the next step, but that being said, timely hitting is definitely the X-factor.

THEY WILL HAVE A GREAT YEAR IF: At first I was wondering but as I go down this team I can’t see them challenging for this division in the end like some think is possible so to answer this question…they’ll have success if toads fall from the sky.

OUTLOOK: Expect something like a 3rd, 4th or 5th place finish in the Central which will miss the playoffs but hey, at least this team is improving.

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5. CINCINNATI REDS

The legendary Ken Griffey Jr. could have been hailed as the greatest player to ever play the game by now if he didn’t get hurt so much. Needless to say that happened (even this year before the season actually starts) so instead Griffey will just be remembered as perhaps the best player ever to be hurt for half his career. Their starting rotation is decent at the top with Aaron Harrang and Bronson Arroyo, above average in the middle and below average the rest of the way. Their LF – Adam Dunn is so all or nothing that you can either pencil him in every at bat as a BB, K or HR. That being said, with Griffey out, he’s the one threat on this team that is legit with the exception of perhaps 2B – Bradon Phillips who had a decent season last year for a middle infielder and is definitely on the rise.

#1 PLAYER TO WATCH: Who else? CF – Ken Griffey Jr. To me he’s still the best defensive CF of our lifetime because of the ease at which he’s always played out there. He can make the hardest catches look routine because of his 6th sense when judging balls off the bat. His jumps on balls used to be sub-human. And his hitting…well, that goes without saying. Nowadays he’s getting older and his play is slowly going downhill but he’s still a solid player and above average. He doesn’t have the bat speed he used to have but his natural lift in his HR friendly swing gives him the necessary loft to muscle it out of the park. Thus, he’s still good for 25 HR’s if he stays healthy. That’s a big IF though. He isn’t the total package now that he once was and that’s a shame because this Reds team could really use the old Griffey.

X-FACTOR: Can LF – Adam Dunn cut down on his K’s? Well he had 194 of them last season so the simple answer to this question is…NOT BLOODY LIKELY. He has a really long type of swing and monstrous power but he’s also a patient hitter despite his weaknesses. Sometimes he swings so dam hard contact is an issue and he’ll swing right through the ball. He’s no longer good defensively (especially in LF) and is more suited to be a DH in the AL but the bottom line here is that he can be one of the games best pure RBI men and raw power hitters if he wasn’t so all or nothing all the time.

THEY WILL HAVE A GREAT YEAR IF: They won’t have a great year so this category shouldn’t even be answered.

OUTLOOK: Honestly, the foursome of Harang, Arroyo, Kyle Lohse and Eric Milton could be good for 50 wins if it’s a good season for the Reds. David Weathers leads an average bullpen and overall depth is certainly a question mark on this team. The point is that other teams in this division have greater depth and greater overall hitting talent then the Reds and they’ll flat out pay for it.

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6. PITTSBURGH PIRATES

Once again the needle is skipping on this broken record player. Pitching, pitching, pitching. The only difference is, the pitching on this club is so dam young, they have a long way to go. That being said, ace pitcher – Zach Duke is a top of the rotation guy and will be for a long time despite a rough season last year. This is not a good offensive team and their hitting is rarely consistent. That being said, with pitching that is too young and with inconsistent hitting, where else would this team be put except in the NL Central cellar?

#1 PLAYER TO WATCH: He has a great hitting approach and the ball just seems to jump off his bat. He has some trouble hitting breaking balls but he has upped his walk totals. He’s mainly a leftfielder but he’s more then capable of playing in center. That being said, he’s not known for his defense anyway but more for his skills as a hitter which keep improving. He’s a definite all-star and he should only get better. Yes indeed, the Canadian is head and shoulders the best hitter on this team.

X-FACTOR: If there even is an X-factor, how about actually hitting the ball for a change? Chris Duffy, Jack Wilson, Freddy Sanchez, Xavier Nady, Ryan Doumit…etc. Where are the marquis names? Besides Bay, what you see is definitely what you’re going to get out of Pittsburgh. Not much. How many years in a row can one team expect to rebuild? For the Pirates it could take forever. Pittsburgh, enjoy Bay while you have him.

THEY WILL HAVE A GREAT YEAR IF: They move to the minor leagues.

OUTLOOK: It isn’t a good one but if they improve you could call it successful. Look out…The Pirates can send pitchers - Snell, Maholm, Gorzelanny, Torres, Gonzalez, etc. at you. If you don’t know who these guys are don’t worry about it. You aren’t the only one. That being said, scouts say they’ve all got tremendous upside if they continue to improve. Look on the bright side Pittsburgh fans…with PNC Park to play in at least you can say your team plays in one hell of a nice stadium. There’s no doubt about that.

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