MLB PREVIEW - AL WEST

This should still be LA’s division to win or lose simply because I am a firm believer in the team with the best pitching staff having the best team. That being said, they already have key injuries to some top arms and it may not be that easy. The Oakland A’s will always be consistent and should be next in line to challenge the Angels because of their ability to constantly replace lost talent with strong newcomers every single year. Texas and Seattle should again battle it out to stay away from the cellar and shouldn’t go farther then that. Texas probably won’t re-sign Teixera either so they could be in serious trouble in the future. Seattle is on the right track with some strong young arms like Felix Hernandez but top to bottom this is a weak division. That’s what’s scary because LA might have the best pitching but hitting could let them down so it’s not exactly a sure thing this time around.

1. THE LOS ANGELES ANGELS OF ANAHEIM
This is a good starting rotation and also a strong bullpen. Last season, their offense seemed to lack consistency after Vladimir Guerrerro. The addition of CF – Gary Mathews Jr. was huge because he fills a big gap for them at both CF and as a lead off hitter but he might have had his one and only career year in 2006. The Angels certainly hope he can repeat last season. The overall problem with this team is also what makes them good. They take a lot of chances because they can really run so you take risks that sometimes can pay off but sometimes they don’t. You’d almost think that sometimes they’d be better off not to run so much so that they could increase their chances of getting more RBI’s for Vlad because as mentioned, the Angels didn’t score much last season. That’s a big reason why. Besides LF – Garrett Anderson, there really isn’t another big power threat besides Guerrerro either so it’s pretty easy to pitch around certain players in this lineup.

#1 PLAYER TO WATCH: RF – Vladimir Guerrerro. Even though you can try to pitch around him you have to be careful because he’ll hit bad pitches out of the ballpark. He’s got the ability to extend his arms and just plain smash the ball into the seats. He’s a good situational hitter and has good power to all fields. He has lost his base-running speed which made him a 5 tool player in his younger days. Defensively, his range isn’t much anymore but he’s still got one of the game’s best arms for a RF. His skills are certainly on the decline but he’s still one of the scariest hitters in the league.

X-FACTOR: A strong starting pitching staff. Bartolo Colon (hard fastball, slider and change but he has rotator cuff problems and might not be available before the All-Star break), Kelvim Escobar (hitters have a difficult time picking up his pitches because he’s very deceiving but even he is now on the DL), John Lackey (one of the game’s most consistent starters), Ervin Santana (one of the best young pitchers in the game and he’s the future ace of the staff) and youngster, Jared Weaver (they say he’s a better pitcher at this stage then his brother, Jeff was). If healthy, this group will just plain get the job done and it’s probably going to be the big reason why the Angels win a weak AL West.

THEY WILL BE SUCCESSFUL IF: That same starting pitching staff stays healthy. As already mentioned, Colon and Escobar have started the year on the DL with a mid-summer return expected for Colon. If healthy, this is clearly one of the best pure staffs going and should bring them at least moderate success even with the front two starters on the DL.

OUTLOOK: Their offense of Guerrerro, Anderson, Mathews, Cabrera, Hillenbrand, Napoli, Figgins, etc. can slump for much of the year and they’ll still win the West because after the Angels there really isn’t much talent here with the odd challenge from Oakland being the only real threat to LA. If they don’t win this division and make the playoffs it would be considered a disappointment.

2. OAKLAND ATHLETICS
How many years can this team lose tremendous talent and still be competitive to the point of winning the division and making the playoffs? It probably won’t happen this time being as I think they’ve just plain lost too much. Pitcher – Barry Zito was last year’s ace but got an enormous contract from SF and DH – Frank Thomas left for Toronto. The big question is can they still stay competitive. I say yes but to make the playoffs again…NO. So, this year’s version of the A’s are more of a pitching and defense team but will probably still have a winning record. Judging by their past, who’d doubt that at this stage?

#1 PLAYER TO WATCH: LF – Nick Swisher. This team has some good talent but not really any tremendous superstars any longer so this might just be the most dangerous hitter they have because of the huge pop in his bat. That being said he really needs to up his average and stop over-swinging, especially with 2 strikes on him. He doesn’t really have the build of a true blue power threat but he did knock 35 out of the park last season. They’ll put him in left but he is better at 1B. He plays aggressively and is a leader on this team without a doubt.

X-FACTOR: The recipe of this team never changes. Can they do more with less YET AGAIN this season? They don’t have many players that would be considered bad but as mentioned there really aren’t any superstars. Jason Kendall plays a solid catcher and is a good spot hitter. Kotsay, Chavez and Milton Bradley are very steady and Crosby and Ellis aren’t far behind. It’s between them and LA for the division but there’s just too many question marks.

THEY WILL BE SUCCESSFUL IF: DH – Mike Piazza becomes the Piazza of old to replace Frank Thomas. Piazza will be focusing entirely on being a DH now and that should spell success for him. This was a really good pickup for the A’s to get him out of the National League and into a place where he can DH only. He has a very long swing but still has a lot of power and extends his arms well over the outer half of the plate where he still has a lot of pop in his bat to the opposite field. Again, the fact that he is just a DH might actually make a nice replacement for Frank Thomas.

OUTLOOK: The loss of Zito is huge but the A’s always find ways to compensate for their losses like no team I have ever seen. The pitching staff is led by Rich Harden and Esteban Loaiza. These 2 need to stay healthy and consistent. Speaking of consistency… Can Dan Haren and Joe Blanton stay consistent themselves? They have a top notch closer in Huston Street but can they get to him in save situations? It’s all about replacing Zito and Thomas. How well they do that is what will determine Oakland’s 2007 outlook but that being said, they won’t outdo LA.

3. TEXAS RANGERS
This is a good hitting team with a strong bullpen and a nice free agent pickup in ex White Sox bullpen man – Brandon McCarthy for starting purposes but the rest of the starting pitching is questionable. Just knowing this team can hit like it can expect the usual…lot’s of high scoring games in Arlington. The problem is as much as the Rangers will hit, they’ll be out-hit by opponents who have better pitching then they do.

#1 PLAYER TO WATCH: SS – Michael Young. To me, this could be the most underrated player in baseball because he is an all-star infielder that just plain does it all. He just signed a big contact and it was certainly deserved. He has good bat control and will hit high heaters or low breaking balls due to his quick hands. Defensively he seems very complete with good range, a nice glove and a strong arm. Complete players don’t exactly grow on trees. Young is one of the best.

X-FACTOR: One of the strongest bullpens going. The signing of Eric Gagne (a hard fastball and changeup) could prove incredible if he stays healthy (BIG IF). Last season’s closer turned setup man this season – Akinori Otsuka (funky delivery and breaking stuff) is more then capable of paving the way for Gagne on most night’s and technically could close games himself if he needs to. Frank Francisco is coming off elbow surgery but is also a highly rated player again, if he can stay healthy. The Rangers may win more games this season if they out hit teams going into the late innings. This bullpen is the reason.

THEY WILL BE SUCCESSFUL IF: The starting rotation lasts until the late innings. Staff ace – Kevin Millwood (can be a dominating ace with a fastball, curve, slider and change), Vicente Padilla (has a new long term deal but they say his ability is going downhill because he experiments too much instead of just going after hitters), Robinson Tejada (they like this kid), John Koronka and Brandon McCarthy (he’ll finally get a chance to start) are the starting five and they’re a very inconsistent starting five. This team will win it’s share of games but will also lose it’s share too.

OUTLOOK: Obviously the big bats of Young, Mark Teixera (potential triple crown hitter), Brad Wilkerson and Hank Blalock must show up every night to match slightly above average pitching. I think this team is a bit of a dark horse because a lot of their talent is underrated. Either way, they aren’t as good as Anaheim or even Oakland so it probably won’t matter.

4. SEATTLE MARINERS
They will do all they can to stay out of the cellar in this division but it’s likely they’ll end up there again. The additions of Jose Vidro, Jose Guillen, Miguel Batista and Horacio Ramirez will definitely help them but I don’t believe it will be enough to come close to winning the division or even getting out of last place. The American League has too many good teams and the Mariners aren’t one of them.

#1 PLAYER TO WATCH: CF – Ichiro Suzuki. He’s one of the best hitters for average in the history of baseball. Mind you, he’ll slump at times now where he never used to and he’s definitely getting older but his overall bat control, swing and ability to fly down the line and beat out the odd ground ball make him really something special. Another interesting thing to note is he tries really hard up there and isn’t usually an easy out. Defensively he was probably the best RF in the game but they moved him to CF now. He won’t lose much if anything moving there. His arm is exceptionally strong and accurate.

X-FACTOR: Starting pitcher – Felix Hernandez. He can be absolutely un-hittable at times and he’s still very young. He’s a power thrower with a mid-90’s heater…a hard over-handed curveball and an accomplished changeup. He has a very loose arm with outstanding raw velocity. He doesn’t always control his emotions but that might come with age. That being said he’s very advanced and has 20 win potential.

THEY WILL BE SUCCESSFUL IF: All of the following questions are answered…Can Hernandez be consistent? Can the other starters - Washburn, Batista and Ramirez be dependable? Will closer – JJ Putz (they say he has the ability for 40 saves) live up to expectations or is he still a year or 2 away from top form like Hernandez? Will SS – Yuniesky Betancourt take the next step like they say? Do Suzuki, Beltre (big disappointment), Ibanez and Sexson have anything left? We’ll see.

OUTLOOK: The names are there and it’s now a better team but again, it’s all a matter of having patience in some of the young players and hoping the veterans can still produce. This isn’t a very patient hitting team either and you can’t depend on all the starting pitchers in long term so this Mariner team should end up being happy if they are simply mid-pack.

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