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- kevin: go blue...
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MLB PREVIEW – AL CENTRAL
This is by far the best overall division in baseball, loaded with talented teams. As closely matched as the Central is, going into this season, I believe the Tigers are the team to beat because they have the most overall depth. How many teams do you know that could lose a pitcher like Kenny Rogers for half the year and still have enough overall pitching to compensate for it? Detroit certainly does but even the backup players are more then capable. Detroit is loaded everywhere but it’s hard to repeat as American League Champs. Winning this division would be one hell of a start. Minnesota is Detroit’s biggest threat but they probably lost too much pitching to do so despite the great bats of Morneau and Mauer. Chicago will always be a threat with the great hitting of Konerko, Thome and Dye but Cleveland might just be the biggest surprise of all. Hafner, Sizemore, Sabathia and Westbrook lead the way for an Indians team that many believe underachieved last season. Just because this order is what it is doesn’t mean that it will end like this simply because, in truth, any one of the teams in this division (with the exception of KC) can win it. They are that strong. The simple fact is when you look at each team top to bottom, this is still Detroit’s division to win or lose. That’s how it should be baby!
1. DETROIT TIGERS
This could be the most balanced team in baseball overall. There are a few minor weaknesses but there is no reason why the Tigers can’t win the division, despite how talented the teams are in it. The addition of DH – Gary Sheffield in the offseason was enormous because in Sheff the Tigers get the one thing they so desperately needed from a season ago – a true blue 3rd hitter. Sheffield has perhaps the fastest bat speed in the game. He has a big hitch in his swing but his timing is tremendous, as is his plate coverage and his ability to hit the ball anywhere on a line. The final piece to the World Series puzzle may have finally landed in Motown. The question is will this team stay relatively healthy like last season and can the pitchers improve on their fielding which cost them last year’s World Series? One other thing about them is as talented as they are they are no longer the surprise of baseball. Everyone knows how good Detroit is and will be gunning for them. Can they still win despite this fact? Time will tell.
#1 PLAYER TO WATCH: RP – Justin Verlander. Last season’s AL Rookie of the year (17-9/3.63) has the stuff to be just plain overpowering and dominant. The ease at which he throws 96-101 mph is just amazing. What really wowed me when watching him last year was that he had a blister problem so there were a few starts where he changed his style when throwing his curveball, fastball and changeup all the while still trying to learn how to pitch in the big leagues. And he was successful doing it. For his age, his mound presence and the speed at which he operates at is really phenomenal. He has great power, command and his ability to adjust to what needs to be done and still be successful while doing it is what makes this kid truly one of the best young arms to come to the big leagues IN YEARS. He’ll win 20 games in just his 2nd season. UNREAL!
X-FACTOR: If the starting pitching does what it did last season there could be no stopping Detroit because the bullpen is solid with Todd Jones, Fernando Rodney, Jose Mesa and lights out smoke thrower – Joel Zumaya (at 103 mph…has the best pure velocity in the game). Jones can be shaky at times and Mesa is way over the hill but we have just tapped into the pitching in this organization. Young leftie and yet another high 90’s to 100 mph hurler – Andrew Miller will get his chance soon. Wil Ledezma, Zach Minor, Roman Colon, Jason Grilli and other strong young arms in the organization make this team truly one to watch but again, it’s the starters that are the tell all for Detroit. Jeremy Bonderman (14-8/4.08) will get the call on opening day against Toronto. Bonderman has the best slider in baseball. It’s dominating, overpowering and can be un-hittable at times. Word is he has been working on a changeup to go with the fastball and slider and they say he’s looking great but time will tell. Kenny Rogers (17-8/3.84) had a fabulous season but how long will it last because he’s not getting any younger? On top of that, he’ll be out until July (they say) with a blood clot in his shoulder. How big of a loss this will be is something that only time can answer. The aforementioned Verlander, Nate Robertson (13-13/3.84) and Mike Maroth (5-2/4.19) close out the best pitching staff in baseball. With more then adequate backups at the front, back and middle of the staff, Detroit has more then enough talent and depth to repeat last season and probably be better from an overall pitching standpoint.
THEY WILL HAVE A GREAT YEAR IF: The offense cuts down on free swinging and strikeouts. The names are there. CF – Granderson, 2B – Polanco, DH – Sheffield, RF – Ordonez, C – Rodriguez, SS – Guillen, etc. The only glaring weakness left in this offense (besides the opening statement) is still a true blue lead off hitter. That being said, Granderson is adequate enough if he cuts down on his K’s.
OUTLOOK: I didn’t say earlier that this team was perhaps the most balanced overall team for nothing. They MUST make the playoffs with the kind of pitching and overall talent that they now have. Anything less should be considered as unsuccessful. They can go anywhere from all the way to being eliminated early but that being said, this is a team being built for one thing now…a World Championship. And with that minor league system, who’s going to stop them?
2. MINNESOTA TWINS
Still one of the best teams in baseball despite losing P – Brad Radke to retirement and P – Francisco Lariano (a major blow because the potential was there to have the best 1-2 punch in baseball with Johan Santana). Despite the losses, the Twins still have a potent lineup with some very talented hitters and a deep bullpen. The key will be starting pitching and how long it can go before giving way to the talented relievers.
#1 PLAYER TO WATCH: Pitching is most important so it has to be Santana. A low to mid 90’s fastball, a change and a strong slider are his bread and butter but he is very deceiving because his arm motion is so short. He can throw all 3 for strikes and he really moves his fastball and he disguises the other 2 pitches (thrown almost like screwballs) around it. His control is pin-point and he can make hitters look foolish because his arm motion is always the same. He has the talent to win 20 by accident for many years. His aggressive pitching style and the results from it makes him arguably the best pitcher in baseball.
X-FACTOR: Recovering from the loss of Radke and Lariano. With a great bullpen led by smoke throwing closer, Joe Nathan and setup man, Juan Rincon, there is no question this team has what it takes. After Santana though, the starters are really a question mark and this will make or break them. Boof Bonser is a strong young starter but has command problems. Carlos Silva can’t throw to lefties very well and gives up a lot of gopher balls. Matt Garza and Glen Perkins round out a starting staff full of question marks. Lariano would probably be the difference in winning the division but so much will depend on Santana to deliver.
THEY WILL HAVE A GREAT YEAR IF: The offense continues to hit well in the hitter friendly Metrodome. Their C – Joe Mauer has a tremendous swing for that ballpark and 1B – Justin Morneau is coming off a well deserved MVP season. Mauer (.347/13/84) is an absolute deadly hitting catcher and his batting title is evident of that. He was the first catcher to ever win the award in the AL. His swing covers a lot of the plate and he takes what you give him. He has terrific plate balance and can hit well even when fooled on the pitch. Morneau has exceptional power to all fields and is disciplined. They say he’s more then capable of repeating last season’s .321/34/130 numbers for years to come. Joining the flashy CF – Torii Hunter and LF – Rondell White in a nicely balanced lineup are names such as Castillo, Punto, Cuddyer, and youngster, Jason Bartlett (they say he’s got a bright future).
OUTLOOK: Without Lariano and too many questions throughout the middle of the starting staff, I can’t immediately say that the Twins will top the Tigers in the Central but they certainly have the talent to do so. Whether they do or not is another thing but with the overall talent on this team, not making the playoffs would be a disappointment despite the fact that they play in the best division in baseball (AL Central).
3. CHICAGO WHITE SOX
In 2004 when the Sox won the World Series their pitching was just plain awesome, particularly the starters. Last season it was just average and they paid for it by not even making the playoffs. The bullpen should be just as strong this year and the offense will continue to hit in the hitter friendly US Cellular Field. That being said, as proven in the past couple of seasons, this team only goes as far as their starting pitching will take them. This team has to stop relying so heavily on the long ball even though they play in such a homerun friendly park.
#1 PLAYER TO WATCH: RF – Jermaine Dye. Although Paul Konerko or Jim Thome could have been mentioned here let’s face it, the season Dye had last year (.315/44/120) was tremendous. If he does it again (and I see no reason why he can’t in that ballpark) the Sox will have an excellent offense. Dye hits breaking balls well and is very effective hitting the ball the other way which can sometimes be an odd trait for a power hitter. Dye has a short stroke but generates good pop with it. He’s an underrated player because he’s a quiet run producer but he’s as dangerous as they come.
X-FACTOR: The make or break bat of DH – Jim Thome. He’s a proven run producer and a more then effective power hitter but he’s getting up there in age and you have to wonder if he’s still got the ability to hit 40 out of the park like last year. In other words, his numbers are going to drop sometime. The question is…when? He’s so important to this team hitting in the middle of the order. He could be the difference this season.
THEY WILL HAVE A GREAT YEAR IF: Starting pitchers, Jose Contreras (very deceptive), Jon Garland (an effective sinker), Javier Vazquez (seems to improve every year), Gavin Floyd and ESPECIALLY Mark Buehrle (lost quite a bit of velocity last season) must get back to their 2004 form when they were dominant. It certainly can be done but if Contreras has an off year, the Sox could be in trouble especially if Buehrle’s production (12-13/4.99) continues to fade.
OUTLOOK: There is no doubt they’ll hit the ball. The unsung hitters like 2B – Tadahito Iguchi, 3B – Joe Crede and 1B – Paul Konerko (outstanding bat speed and one of the game’s best swings – (.313/35/113) are just as important as the Thome’s and Dye’s of the Sox but again, hitting is not the question mark with Chicago because they’ll definitely score the runs. It comes down to how far the starting pitching can take them before getting to dominant closer Bobby Jenks. Chicago has a chance to win the AL Central and even the World Series. It’s all a matter of the starting pitching coming together. That being said, I still think they’ll fall short again of Detroit and Minnesota.
4. CLEVELAND INDIANS
They say the Indians could surprise people this year but I find that hard to believe when you consider the strength of the AL Central. Sure, this team has a lot of talent but that being said, most of it is young. Despite the fact that the starting pitching is pretty strong with CC Sabathia (hard thrower with a deadly slurve), Jake Westbrook (logs a lot of innings with a nice sinker, slider and change) and Cliff Lee (deceptive, strange delivery helping his cutter and curve), the bullpen is a bit of a question mark. They needed to improve it and they went out to try to do just that. With Keith Foulke and Joe Borowski leading the way for late relief, this could just be what the doctor ordered for the Indians.
#1 PLAYER TO WATCH: CF – Grady Sizemore. He’s just plain awesome. He’s got quick hands and is very dangerous at the plate. He’ll strike out a lot but he hits well with runners in scoring position and he cranks the ball to all fields. I like his all around game though. He has good speed and great instincts on the bases and his defense is only improving. He’s clearly one of the best athletes and all around players in the game and should be an all-star for years. He’s just a pleasure to watch.
X-FACTOR: 1B/DH – Travis Hafner. One of the physically strongest hitters I’ve ever seen period. He can flat out overpower the ball into the seats. He’s flat out scary and definitely a difference maker that can completely take over a game. Hafner has power to all fields, excellent patience and he’s just plain intimidating. He’s primarily a DH now because of constant elbow injuries which limit him at first base but man, what a force he is for Cleveland.
THEY WILL HAVE A GREAT YEAR IF: The lower half of this lineup is pretty young (2B – Josh Barfield, 3B – Andy Marte, SS – Johnny Peralta and 1B – Ryan Garko). How they hit is key. If they can get on base for Sizemore and Hafner to drive in, the Indians should score plenty of runs.
OUTLOOK: In most divisions, the Indians would be a lock to contend for a division title but that’s a pretty tall order in the AL Central. In reality, they could finish anywhere from 1st to 4th in it so predicting where this team will finish without a definitive strong bullpen like both Detroit and Minnesota possess is hard. Expect a successful season if they do well against teams in their own division.
5. KANSAS CITY ROYALS
The Royals are much like the Devil Rays and Orioles of the AL East. There is just too much overall talent in their division for them to do any better then the cellar despite the fact that they are actually improving. It probably won’t get noticed. They picked up pitchers, Octavio Dotel and Gil Meche to try and assure themselves that they won’t lose 100 games this time around. Good luck!
#1 PLAYER TO WATCH: 3B – Mark Teahen. He’s a good looking ball player but has to stay healthy. He has a patient approach and nice swing up to bat with a lot of home run power. It really just needs time to develop, much like this entire team. He is also a good clutch performer and this team certainly needs more of those kinds of players.
X-FACTOR: P – Gil Meche. He was their big free agent pick up but still isn’t really the upper tier type of player that other teams in this division have. That being said, he has a nice knuckle curve and has a good delivery to throw it with. He’s not really a strikeout pitcher and will walk his share of hitters but he has good arm speed and overall movement. The problem with Meche isn’t that he doesn’t have the potential. It’s more about trusting his stuff and learning to win more with it. It will be tough for Meche to win on the Royals but he has the talent to win 15 if he finds his consistency.
THEY WILL HAVE A GREAT YEAR IF: Hell freezes over and pigs start flying.
OUTLOOK: Their talent is either too young or too questionable at this stage. Again, when you play in the AL Central, you have to bring more talent to the top teams then what KC can bring. For the most part, Meche, Odalis Perez, Luke Hudson, Brian Bannister and Zack Greinke are hardly household names. Octavio Dotel isn’t a bad closer but this is hardly a team that can compete in this division with this overall pitching staff. As far as the hitters go, David DeJesus, Mark Grudzielanek, Mark Sweeney (is actually a dangerous hitter if he stays healthy which he hasn’t been able to do), Emil Brown, Reggie Sanders and Angel Berroa are steady players/hitters AT BEST. The problem is you need more then steady in this division. Expect last place. If any team in this division finishes below them the season would be considered a disaster.
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